Kamala Harris Gets Worrying Sign in State She Has to Win

Working-class voters are moving to the right, according to a new analysis, which may hurt Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning Pennsylvania.
According to a report by The Philadelphia Inquirer, working-class voters in Pennsylvania, who were once a reliable voting bloc for the Democrats, have “drifted right in recent years.” Pennsylvania is a swing state with 19 Electoral College votes that are crucial to win to secure victory in November.
The shift to the right is particularly pronounced in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania’s biggest city, where President Joe Biden performed worse in 2020 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 across 41 of the city’s 66 political wards, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported.
The analysis showed that in precincts in Philadelphia with 35 percent more residents living in poverty, the net shift toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2020 was 47 points. In contrast, in precincts with less than 11 percent of residents living in poverty, voters supported the Democrats by 25 points.
Meanwhile, in areas with 11-16 percent living in poverty, voters shifted toward the Democrats by 20 points, and in areas with 16-24 percent living in poverty, there was a 9-point shift toward the Democrats.
The report also shows that Democrats lost the most ground among working-class Latinos.
Working-class Latinos voted for then-President Donald Trump by 75 points across all the precincts in Philadelphia in 2020, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer. In contrast, white working-class voters have moved toward the Republicans by 10 points, while Black working-class voters have shifted toward the Republicans by 12 points.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.
The analysis is a worrying sign for Harris, who is currently leading Trump by just 0.8 points in Pennsylvania, according to FiveThirtyEight. And polls show that the vice president leads Trump by just a few points among the lowest-income voters.
A survey conducted by Patriot Polling between September 27 and 29 of 816 registered voters in Pennsylvania showed that Harris has a 5-point lead among voters with incomes of $0 to $50,000. Her lead increased to 7 points among voters with incomes of $50,000 to $100,000, while Trump led by 12 points among voters on salaries above $100,000. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
In another poll conducted by AtlasIntel between September 20 and 25, Harris led by 19 points among voters with incomes below $50,000 and 5 points among voters with $50,000 to $100,000. Trump led by 17 points among voters with salaries of over $100,000. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
With 19 Electoral College votes up for grabs, Pennsylvania has historically been a crucial state to win the presidential election.
Harris needs 44 electoral votes from the toss-up states this year to win, while Trump would need 51. If Harris were to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd district, she would have enough votes to secure victory.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows Harris is projected to win in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Nonetheless, polls are still close across the swing states. Some recent polls from Pennsylvania show Trump in the lead by up to 3 points, while others have shown Harris in the lead by up to 6 points. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Harris’ lead in the state has declined by 0.3 points since September 1, from 1.1 points to 0.8 points.